Monday, December 7, 2009

Interview on hyperinflation

If you follow economics at all, you're probably familiar with the Shadow Stats website, where economist John Williams presents the real (or closer to real) econ data. Basically he just calculates things the way we used to calculate them, before successive administrations started finagling the numbers. Williams is widely trusted and respected.

In an interview this past weekend on King World News he laid out, in his usual calm way, his estimate that the United States could face hyperinflation within 1 to 3 years:

In this interview John discusses looming hyperinflation, staggering unemployment, the reality of the US economy, the Fed’s inability to stimulate the economy, consumer’s inability to spend, the coming collapse of the US Dollar, how listeners need to prepare themselves for this crisis, the Fed’s debasement of the Dollar, an intensifying great depression, disappearance of cash as we know it and more.

Back in the summer of 2008 Williams issued a now-famous Special Report on Hyperinflation where he predicted it would set in between 2010 and 2018. So he's revised the timeline in the belief that dollar collapse will come sooner than he previously thought, due to the Fed's massive money printing in the past year. The interview is excellent and worth downloading.

To clarify, since hyperinflation has no agreed-upon, set definition, Williams' definition is when the largest circulating bill becomes more functional as toilet paper than as currency. This would be the $100 bill in our case... made worthless. Sometime in the 2010-2012 period.

And this, I should mention, agrees with reports from Lindsey Williams. Put on your tinfoil hat for a minute and lend me your ear. Williams is a minister who happened to spend quality time with a few elites in the early 70s, while working on Alaskan oil pipelines. (Yes, it's weird-- they hired him as a chaplain for their employees.) And he's being used by one of these very elite guys (think Bilderberg) to pass along leaked information. Back in spring 2008 Williams' source told him that oil -- then well above $100 / barrel and headed ultimately for almost $150 -- would crash to below $50 within a year. Williams went on radio to pass this along, and I had a very clear response to this, which was: "Bullshit!" But since Williams was right on that (and apparently on a number of past predictions), I feel I should listen to him with half an ear. His source recently told him that the dollar collapse timeline had been delayed by the elites because they were given so many trillions of dollars by the Fed and US government -- more trillions, apparently, than they had hoped for in their wildest dreams -- and it was taking them some time to convert all that paper into things of real value. So, instead of the dollar being in its death spiral already, it has been held up to give the uber-rich time to exit their dollar positions. This will not last much longer, however, as Williams' source said the dollar would be toast within 2 years. Take it for whatever it's worth-- it's just interesting that the timeline is similar.

Safest way to think about it is that 2010 is the last year of the dollar. For those of you with no money or assets, well hey, you won't have any wealth to evaporate the way middle class 401k's will. And those student loans? Ha! You'll be paying them off with pocket change. If you have very little to spare, concentrate on food... stockpiling it or moving closer to it. I wouldn't want to live in Phoenix, that's all I'm sayin'.

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