[T]he opinion that the market can and will continue to rise is becoming ever more widespread, and ironically the bulls ALL say the same thing, namely "everybody else is bearish".
Mutual fund (MuFu) managers are not bearish, that much is certain. At 4.2%, the the MuFu cash-to-assets ratio is one of the lowest in history, in fact lower than at the 2000 top, and only a hair above the 2007 low. Those stats (from a friend) are from July. Given the continued rally, MuFu cash on hand has probably decreased even more in August.
In other words, the professional money managers -- the "big" money -- long ago went back into the market. They've got so many stocks, the amount of cash on hand is at extremely low levels.
Remember that when the stock market rises, the smart money gets in first, probably very close to the bottom. Soon after, the big money goes in-- and apparently, they were mostly "in" by July. That leaves... the dumb money. Us. We don't get in until we're nearly at the top of the market. If history is any guide, we proles have been buying stocks just in the past few weeks. Just as the "smart" money was fleeing like rats from a sinking ship. And now the market is about to turn, and we proles will get fleeced again. More Mish:
The Dow's dividend yield is now at the level of the the 1968 top and the September 1929 top. Good luck with that!
The dumb money knows none of this, because the mantra in the media is all about green shoots, recovery, the recession is over, we averted disaster, Hallelujah! The goofballs on CNBC will cost many Americans a hefty chunk of their life savings. I don't know how they can sleep at night.
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